It's not just Trump: the real reasons we're falling out of love with the US

Happy birthday, USA! 250 is pretty impressive, so I thought about getting you a cake. But that's a lot of candles to buy ... and, anyway, I hear everyone is on Ozempic these days.

Still, with the massive July 4th celebrations this weekend, it's an opportune time to have a look at tourism to the United States, because there have certainly been a lot of fireworks in the industry over the past couple of years. But is it just noise?

As we all know by now, international tourism to the US is drastically down over the past couple of years, with official figures showing a drop of about five per cent, while the rest of the world has gone up by about 10 per cent.

When the Founding Fathers wrote the Declaration of Independence 250 years ago and said one of the truths they held to be self-evident was "the pursuit of happiness", they probably weren't thinking about holidays (they would've called them "vacations" anyway), but that's exactly what travel is.

Yet so many of us look to the US on this semiquincentennial and are more concerned with the other self-evident truths of life and liberty.

There's no doubt that Donald Trump's presidency is creating fear, with stories of heavy-handed border officials and proposals to search the social media of visitors.

Yet despite media hype of tourists being arbitrarily detained or denied entry, keep in mind that 68 million international visitors went to the US last year without being turned around at the border.

Trump may be easy to blame (and much of that blame is warranted) but the Republican president is not the only elephant in the room.

We also have to acknowledge that America is just really bloody expensive right now.

An unfavourable exchange rate and high inflation are putting off a lot of people.

Trump's price hikes for foreigners visiting the top national parks doesn't help either.

Perhaps the reason we care so much, the reason why we talk about boycotts to the US yet hypocritically travel in huge numbers to other countries with authoritarian leaders, is because we've had such a special and close relationship with America.

We watch its movies, listen to its music, emulate its fashion. And now it seems to be breaking up with us.

But the country has form - what was the Declaration of Independence if not the world's most famous break-up letter?

Perhaps these cultural connections will be enough to save the relationship. Maybe we're just on a break, rather than it being a break up.

After all, it was exciting to see the celebrations in New York last month when the Knicks won the NBA Championships, like a reminder of the fun and energy that we once fell in love with, before the bickering started.

The FIFA World Cup has also focused international attention on the US, with the country hosting a global celebration at the same time as its 250th anniversary.

Although data suggests hotel occupancy for many host cities is well below expectations (between 60 to 80 per cent in Atlanta, for example), Australians are apparently doing their bit to lift the rate.

FIFA says Aussies were the sixth-highest nation for ticket sales after the host countries, while travel data shows the number of us going to host cities doubled compared to the same time last year.

So, we will go to the US if it's worth it, is that the takeaway?

Well, it certainly seems like principles and finances can be trumped by a good time (which is encouraging news for the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles).

And, although they probably wouldn't phrase it that way, that's what a lot of people in the American tourism industry are hoping.

A couple of weeks ago, I met delegates from some of the southern US states - places like Louisiana, Tennessee and North Carolina.

Despite the "noise", as one person described it, they were all promising warm welcomes and lots of incredible experiences, whether it's the food in New Orleans, the music in Nashville, or the nature of Great Smoky Mountains National Park.